Parish hears flood predictions

Published 12:09 am Thursday, February 23, 2012

VIDALIA — The spring rise on the Mississippi River at Natchez is expected to come and go with far less fanfare than it did in 2011.

Experts from the National Weather Service met with local leaders Wednesday, sharing their best predictions for river levels in the coming months.

“We will get another rise this spring, but the conditions are not the same as they were last year,” said National Weather Service Hydrologist Marty Pope. “It’s going to take a significant amount of rainfall to cause the Mississippi to rise to that level again.”

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The Louisiana Governor’s Office of Homeland Security and Emergency Preparedness hosted the river flooding planning meeting Wednesday bringing the National Weather Service, U.S. Corps of Engineers and a variety of local and state officials together to discuss the potential for flooding in 2012.

Pope brought the good news of the day as he told the crowded room at the Vidalia Conference and Convention Center that the chances for a flood similar to last year’s record-breaking 61.9 foot water levels is unlikely, barring any unforeseen natural events.

Pope highlighted several factors and weather trends, such as rainfall and snowfall, that affect the river and compared them to last year’s numbers.

In 2011, northern areas, such as the Ohio River Valley, experienced 10 to 14 inches of rainfall, whereas in 2012 those same areas have only received 4 to 10 inches.

Pope said those numbers are a good indicator that the river won’t reach near the same height as last year, but also said that doesn’t put the Miss-Lou completely in the clear.

“All it takes is one or two really large events in a short time and you’ve got a really big flood,” Pope said. “I don’t see it right now, but we always have to tell people to stay aware.”

With a continuing trend of less rainfall in the north, Pope said the crest could also come earlier in the year.

“Things are changed up this year and that crest might be moved up,” Pope said. “We could see that in late March or early April.”

Pope said if the area hasn’t seen a high rise in the river level by May, residents can hold off on piling up sandbags.

“Once you reach early May and you haven’t had a big event, the chances are a lot lower that you won’t see anything big,” Pope said. “But anything can happen.”

State Emergency Preparedness Deputy Director of Emergency Management Chris Guilbeaux said the weather-related news was the highlight of the meeting, but that updates from officials were key in order to prepare for a possible 2012 flood fight.

“What we wanted to do was revisit with federal, state and local partners and see if things had not been addressed from what we learned in 2011,” Guilbeaux said.

U.S. Corps of Engineers project engineer James McRae said the corps is working on three levee raises and four heavy-seepage areas.

The levee south of Vidalia is approximately 90-percent complete, and the other levee in Vidalia on both sides of the riverfront is approximately 30-percent complete.

While he was content with the news of the river not rising as high this year, McRae said the levees are built to stand strong, regardless.

“I have confidence in the levees regardless of what the weather is going to be,” McRae said. “Unless we have a biblical event… our levees are strong.”

Vidalia Mayor Hyram Copeland closed the meeting by thanking all the agencies involved and assuring them of full cooperation again this year.

“I have utmost confidence in those who are working with us as far as the river is concerned,” Copeland said. “I hope that we don’t have to go through anything like that again, but if we do I know our agencies will make sure that we all get through any kind of crisis we may have.”