Chinese Economy Grew 11.9 Percent in 2Q
Published 12:00 am Monday, December 26, 2005
BEIJING – China’s sizzling economy grew faster in the second quarter despite authorities’ efforts to apply the brakes, expanding by 11.9 percent over a year earlier, the government said Thursday. Officials said they would take new steps to cool the boom.
The figures put China on track for a fifth straight year of expansion above 10 percent and moved it closer to overtaking Germany as the world’s third-biggest economy.
Consumer prices rose 4.4 percent in June, the fastest rate in more than two years, and the economy also is under pressure from a swollen trade imbalance and high energy consumption, the National Statistics Bureau said.
“The systemic and the structural problems that existed in economic performance are still outstanding,” said Li Xiaochao, a statistics bureau spokesman, at a news conference.
The April-June growth exceeded analysts’ forecasts and was a sharp increase over the 11.1 percent rate in the first quarter.
“Strong growth is unambiguously good news. The only dark cloud for this is pockets of overheating,” said Tim Condon, chief Asia economist for Dutch bank ING. “The overheating does on the face of it appear to be spreading.”
It was unclear how long it has been since China’s economy grew so fast during a single quarter. Beijing began revising historic growth figures in 2005 and has yet to issue quarterly details. The last time annual growth exceeded 11.9 percent was 1994, when the economy expanded by 13.1 percent.
Communist leaders want to maintain fast growth to reduce poverty but are trying to cool some industries, where they worry that a boom driven by exports and investment could push up inflation or ignite a debt crisis if borrowers fail to repay loans. They have raised interest rates four times since April 2006 and imposed investment curbs on some industries.
“We will further enhance and improve macro control and put into practice various policies set by the central government,” Li said. “And efforts will also be made to adjust the structure, change the pattern of economic growth and deepen reform which will lead to the realization of a sound and rapid growth of the national economy.”
Li gave no indication whether Beijing was planning a new rate hike or what other measures were under consideration.
Investment is still growing faster than intended, Condon said, citing the government announcement that spending on factories and other fixed assets rose 25.9 percent in the first half. Earlier controls have slowed investment in real estate and other targeted industries, leaving it unclear where the new problem areas are, he said.
The rise in consumer prices, lifted by a 7.6 percent jump in food costs, is well above the official target of 3 percent.
Chinese leaders are worried about the political impact of rising food prices, which hit the poor, populous countryside especially hard.
Chinese stocks ended the day mixed, the benchmark Shanghai Composite Index slipping 0.4 percent to 3,912.94, while the key index for the country’s second, smaller market in Shenzhen gained 0.2 percent to 1,082.43.
Economists are likely to raise forecasts for the full year’s growth following such a strong quarter, Condon said.
“It’s going to be something closer to 11 percent than something closer to 10 percent,” he said. “The whole trajectory of growth has been raised.”
Last week, Beijing increased its estimate of 2006 gross domestic product growth from 10.7 percent to 11.1 percent, bringing China closer to overtaking Germany as the world’s third-biggest economy behind the United States and Japan.
Germany’s 2006 output was about $2.9 trillion, with an annual growth rate of 2.5 percent. China’s 2006 output was about $2.7 trillion. Germany has yet to report its April-June growth figures.
Li, the statistics bureau spokesman, said he could not confirm projections that China might overtake Germany this year.
“One thing is for sure. The difference between the two countries in GDP aggregate is narrowing down,” he said.
Chinese incomes also rose sharply in the first half of the year, Li said. Those for city dwellers jumped 14.2 percent, while those for rural residents rose 13.3 percent.
Government efforts to reduce China’s reliance on exports by boosting domestic consumer spending are starting to take effect, Li said.
China’s soaring trade gap has strained relations with Washington and other trading partners, while taxing Beijing’s ability to contain pressure for prices to rise as export revenues pour into the economy.
The 25.9 percent growth in fixed-asset investment was a decline of 3.9 percentage points from the year-earlier period, Li said.
Meanwhile, he said, consumer sales rose 15.4 percent, up 2.1 percentage points from the same period in 2006. Motor vehicle sales soared 36.7 percent.
A service of the Associated Press(AP)