NATCHEZ &8212; As oil and gas prices creep slowly downward and the announcement of a huge oil discovery in the Gulf of Mexico creates excitement in the energy world, the question comes:

Do lower prices and a significant discovery of oil affect plans to build a coal-to-liquid plant in Natchez?

Rentech Inc. is working on a plan to construct the plant at the former Belwood Country Club site near the Natchez port.

Woody Allen, chairman of the Natchez-Adams County Economic Development Authority board, said representatives from the company are in Natchez almost every week.

&8220;Two people were here just a couple of days ago,&8221; Allen said. &8220;The project is on go, and they are working on their study. It is all very positive.&8221;

If all goes as expected, the plant will be open in 2012. Do recent changes in the oil industry make a difference?

Frank Clemente, a Pennsylvania State University professor whose research specialization is energy policy, said he &8220;would be shocked if it has any impact on their project.&8221;

First, he said, demand for energy continues to rise because of growth in China and India. &8220;Oil is a global commodity, and I think we&8217;ve tremendously underestimated the energy needs of China and India.&8221;

In China, consumers are buying 6 million automobiles a year, he said. &8220;And I read a report the other day that said 90 million couples are waiting for a car.&8221; Almost all of them will pay cash for the cars when they get them.

India is headed in the same direction, with their economy and standard of living rising rapidly.

Major oil fields are being depleted in Mexico, Kuwait and the North Sea, Clemente said. &8220;That raises a lot of questions. How can you replace these enormous fields?&8221;

Second, the Gulf of Mexico find announced in early September, about 270 miles southwest of New Orleans, was a huge discovery, but a couple of issues dampen Clemente&8217;s enthusiasm for the find.

&8220;How much is really there,&8221; he wondered aloud in the telephone interview. &8220;And also how deep is it?&8221;

Reports show that the discovery was found almost four miles beneath the ocean floor.

&8220;It&8217;s going to cost a heck of a lot of money just for the pipelines to bring it out,&8221; Clemente said. &8220;I guarantee prices are not going down because of that discovery.&8221;

Third, he said, the price of oil increasingly is finding a floor of about $45 per barrel. He does not believe the price per barrel is likely to go below $40 any time soon.

&8220;Rentech is looking down the road. As long as oil stays above $40 a barrel, they&8217;ll be fine.&8221;

Allen said Rentech officials have told him they have a threshold below which their product becomes less viable, but he said that number is not for public release.

Even with a recession, Clemente said, &8220;People don&8217;t quit living. Babies are born. People are driving. Three million new people are living in this country each year. We&8217;re growing and we&8217;re using more and more oil.&8221;

Another factor to consider is that some of the large oil companies have moved their large oilrigs from the Gulf of Mexico after Hurricane Katrina.

&8220;They&8217;ve gone from about 100 to about 70 rigs in the gulf. And they&8217;re moving to the Middle East or Asia and signing four- to five-year contracts.

&8220;An interesting question is, why is Saudi Arabia bringing huge oil rigs in from the Gulf of Mexico? I think they&8217;re bringing in premium drilling rigs to get their oil. They&8217;re having to go deeper.&8221;

A new day is dawning for energy in the world, not just in the United States. And Clemente sees the Rentech-type coal-to-oil process as the way to a secure future.

&8220;I think CTL is our salvation,&8221; he said. He has never spoken to anyone at Rentech but is familiar with the company because what the company does relates to his area of interest and research.

&8220;Our trade deficit is the highest it&8217;s ever been. We&8217;re buying oil overseas and mortgaging the futures of our children and sending our money to people who hate us,&8221; he said.

&8220;If we can create a clean way to burn coal, it&8217;s an answer to a lot of our questions. Coal is our pathway to reducing our energy dependence on other countries.&8221;

Soon the United States may be importing 70 to 75 percent of its oil, he said. It will follow for natural gas.

Clemente said Rentech obviously has been waiting &8220;for their moment in time. I think Rentech has looked at this carefully and sees that oil is not going back down.&8221;

Another break for Rentech is the interest shown by the U.S. military in the CTL fuel, Clemente said.

&8220;The military is very interested in finding a fuel that can be used in all their vehicles. And they want a more powerful fuel. This fuel provides that.

&8220;Third, this fuel has a shelf life of at least four to five years. You can put it in your lawnmower and leave it there all winter long. That&8217;s another reason the military likes it. And, finally, this fuel does not freeze because it has less water content.&8221;

There is more, Clemente said. The CTL fuel can be interchanged with gasoline and, best of all, can be distributed through the same pipeline system. &8220;This is a big deal. You can&8217;t do that with ethanol, for example.&8221;

Rentech plans to put from $1 billion to $2 billion into the Natchez plant. Clemente said the project will be a huge boost to the Natchez-area economy during the construction phase.

And when the plant opens, the area can expect &8220;well-paying jobs. These are clean plants that bring in educated people.&8221;