Article first published: Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024, 6 a.m. ET

Article last updated: Wednesday, Nov. 6, 2024, 12 p.m. ET

According to the National Hurricane Center’s 12 pm Wednesday advisory, Category 3 Hurricane Rafael is 40 miles northeast of the Isle of Youth and 85 miles south of Havana Cuba, with maximum sustained wind of 115 mph. It’s moving at 14 mph to the northwest.

“… Rafael is expected make landfall in western Cuba this afternoon. Rafael is forecast to move into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico tonight. Some additional strengthening is likely before Rafael makes landfall in Cuba this afternoon.” forecasters wrote. “Rafael is forecast to weaken over Cuba but is expected to emerge into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico as a hurricane.”

There were a lot of changes today: Rafael formed and strengthened into a Category 2 hurricane then into a Category 3 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph.

YESTERDAY (Wednesday):

Yesterday, Rafael changed first into a hurricane and then into a Category 1 hurricane with sustained winds of 115 mph. A tropical storm warning has been issued by forecasters for the Florida Keys.

CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY:

The government of Cuba has discontinued the Tropical Storm Warning for the Cuban provinces of Ciego de Avila and Sancti Spiritus.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for:

– Cuban provinces of Pinar del Rio, Artemisa, La Habana, Mayabeque, Matanzas, and the Isle of Youth

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for:

– Cuban provinces of Villa Clara, and Cienfuegos

– Lower and Middle Florida Keys from Key West to west of the Channel 5 Bridge

– Dry Tortugas

A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning areas.

A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area.

For storm information specific to your area in the United States,

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND:

WIND: Hurricane conditions are expected in western Cuba and the Isle of Youth through the evening. Tropical storm conditions are expected in parts of west-central Cuba and the lower and middle Florida Keys today and tonight.

RAINFALL: Heavy rainfall will impact areas of the Western Caribbean through early Thursday, particularly across the Cayman Islands into western Cuba. Rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches are expected across portions of western Cuba, with isolated higher totals up to 12 inches anticipated across areas of higher terrain. This will lead to areas of flash flooding and mudslides. Across the Cayman Islands additional rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is expected.

Rainfall totals of 1 to 3 inches are expected for the Lower and Middle Florida Keys.

For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Hurricane Rafael, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at3.shtml? Rainqpf

STORM SURGE: Storm surge could raise water levels as much as 9 to 14 feet above normal tide levels in areas of onshore winds along the southern coast of Cuba in the Hurricane Warning area, including the Isle of Youth.

The combination of a storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Dry Tortugas…1-3 ft Lower Florida Keys…1-2 ft

TORNADOES: A couple of tornadoes are possible through tonight over the Florida Keys and far southwestern Florida mainland.

SURF: Swells generated by Rafael are expected to affect much of the western Caribbean during the next day or so and will also spread across most of the Gulf of Mexico from east to west late this week into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.

Source: National Hurricane Center