Does Donald Trump’s candidacy open up the possibility that Mississippi will go for a Democrat this year?

Have Trump’s recent missteps and comments about women all of a sudden shifted the race in his opponent’s favor?

In the world of presidential politics, Mississippians haven’t been in a Democratic blue mood for some time. The state has been deep in Republican red.

Less than seven months from the presidential election, the latest poll numbers suggest there is a real possibility that Mississippi might give all of its six electoral votes to a Democrat instead of the usual GOP.

That would be quite a feat after more than three decades of Republican domination.

With Donald Trump in the race, either as the GOP candidate or as third party candidate, a poll conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research in late March, suggests that Mississippi is up for grabs for either party.

Only voters born before 1959 can remember casting votes in an election when the last Democrat took all of Mississippi’s electoral votes. By less than 2 percentage points Jimmy Carter defeated Gerald Ford in 1976.

Four years later, Ronald Reagan defeated President Carter by 1.3 percentage points in Mississippi.

Since then, Republicans have had a stranglehold on the state’s electoral votes. For 36 years, Mississippi has religiously voted for whichever candidate the GOP offers up for president. In six of the last eight elections, Republican candidates have beaten their Democrat rivals by double digits.

When voters were asked how they would vote if the election were held today, Trump leads Democratic front-runner Hillary Clinton by a narrow 3 percentage points. With 11 percent of registered voters undecided, Trump squeaks by Clinton with a 46 percent to 43 percent margin. With a 4-percent margin for error that basically leaves the race in a statistical tie.

The race becomes even tighter if a third candidate enters the race, with each candidate gaining the approval of 39 percent of those polled.

Not surprisingly, Clinton’s popularity with black voters is unsurpassed. When compared to Trump, black voters go for Clinton by a 93 to 3 percent margin.

Clinton also outperforms Trump by seven percentage points among women. What may be the most interesting statistic is that results show Clinton would attract votes from 15 percent of the white Republican women polled in a race that pitted the Democrat vs. Trump.

GOP candidates Ted Cruz and John Kasich perform far better among voters and hold comfortable leads over Clinton. This especially holds true among Republican women who say they would flock back to either candidate over the Democratic front-runner.

Such numbers suggest that Trump’s recent comments on social media about Cruz’s wife and other statements about women and abortion may have given some Mississippi women in the Republican party a reason to reconsider the candidate.

As a result, Trump may have put Mississippi up for grabs in the general election. Of course, much can change in the next seven months.

If a state like Mississippi has suddenly become a battleground state, imagine what will become of the rest of the electoral map.

 

Ben Hillyer is the news editor of The Natchez Democrat. He can be reached at 601-445-3540 or by email at ben.hillyer@natchezdemocrat.com.