I’ve sensed a change in the voices of the meteorologists at the National Weather Service in the last month or so.

Their tone seems more uncertain than normal and a bit lacking in confidence.

Who can blame them really?

With historic flooding, tornadoes and an unpredictable hurricane season right around the corner, our country’s meteorologists could be understandably in a bit of shock.

Mother nature’s wrath lately has come in extremes — those once-in-a-lifetime extremes that meteorologists likely learn about in school but only dream of living through.

The weather guys in Jackson and New Orleans have always been some of my favorite sources for news stories. They seem to be readily available any hour or any day, and they have always been prepared to talk and be quoted.

Those who know science are usually comfortable that they know the facts and are eager to share them with those of us who are less educated.

But sometime mid-flood the meteorologists seemed shaken.

If you listen to reports and read news stories quoting meteorologists from all agencies all across the country, the story is the same.

The current weather patterns are difficult to predict, apparently.

Blame it on El Niño, his sister La Niña, or really, their non-committal nature this year, some meteorologists are saying.

So far, 2011 hasn’t shown strong signs of being an El Niño or La Niña year.

That’s bad news for hurricane season predictions.

“With a strong La Niña or El Niño year, the forecast is much easier,” said Dan Kottlowski, senior meteorologist at AccuWeather.com. “Since we don’t have a strong signal toward El Niño or La Niña, there’s somewhat more uncertainty in trying to determine how strong this season will be.”

The Associated Press reported Tuesday that the last time such neutral conditions formed in the ocean was 2005 — the year of Katrina and Rita.

So should we transition from flood panic straight into hurricane panic?

No, that’s not good for your health.

Instead, we should simply enter this hurricane season — which begins today — with caution and preparedness.

The National Hurricane Center in Miami is predicting that the season will be busier than normal, with as many as 18 named tropical storms, three to six of them major hurricanes.

But even still, hurricanes do come with several days notice. If your family hurricane kit is well supplied with the basics today, you’ll have plenty of time to gas up and grab fresh bread if a storm system does form.

Be sure you know what your kit needs. Numerous websites, including www.ready.gov/america/beinformed/hurricanes.html, provide checklists.

Thankfully, we are far enough inland that our hurricane worries are focused only on life without power, a few possible gas shortages and downed tree lines.

The damage from high winds can be extensive, but not like what coastal residents experience.

The weather has been unpredictable so far this year, and we shouldn’t expect a big change.

My friends at the National Weather Service seem a bit wary these days, so perhaps we should be prepared.

Julie Cooper is the managing editor of The Natchez Democrat. She can be reached at 601-445-3551 or julie.cooper@natchezdemocrat.com.