Fall floods coming?

River level creeps toward flood stage

By Vershal Hogan (Contact) | The Natchez Democrat

Published Tuesday, November 3, 2009

VIDALIA — The Mississippi River stands approximately 30 feet above the average stage for this time of year, and is expected to dance within inches of flood stage in the coming weeks.

The river is expected to stand at 44.2 feet above gauge zero this morning, while the historic normal stage for today is approximately 14 feet.

The water level is expected to continue to rise until a projected crest of 47.5 feet on the morning of Nov. 15.

The most recent rise was caused by a slow moving frontal system that dumped 3-6 inches to the west of the Mississippi River, including on the Arkansas River, which opens into the Mississippi, National Weather Service Hydrologist Marty Pope said.

Areas along the Ouachita and Red rivers have seen flooding in recent days due to heavy rains, but the Miss-Lou won’t see any of the effects of that flooding, because most of that water eventually ends up in the Red River, he said.

“You’ll see nothing from that above the Old River structure,” he said. “The only effect will be that they won’t be able to divert as much water down through the Atchafalaya River because they are going to have so much water coming down the Red River.”

The heavier-than-normal rainfall the Mississippi River basin has received can be attributed to an El Niño system in the Pacific Ocean.

“Sometimes that changes the jet stream, and so we have seen a little more rainfall than normal,” Pope said.

Pleasant weather is anticipated for the next several days, but all of the NWS weather models show a lot of moisture coming from the Gulf of Mexico, Pope said.

Pope said that this fall’s high water is no reason to anticipate a higher spring flood than average.

“We have had high Januaries, and then the rain cut off, and we had a fairly normal spring rise,” he said.

At 43 feet, the river begins to encroach on and cover Lake Thornburg Road and Anna’s Bottom in Adams County, and also floods Lake Mary Road in Wilkinson County.

At 45 feet, Mississippi River water is under some of the buildings in the Wilkinson County community of Fort Adams, and at 47 feet it begins to flood the old Bellwood golf course and the Carthage Point area in Adams County.